Cold and frosty conditions will greet us Thursday morning, but sunny skies will warm us up into the mid 60s by the afternoon hours.  Clear skies and cold temperatures are expected Thursday night with lows in the mid 30s, but mostly sunny skies will once again warm temperatures up into the mid 60s Friday afternoon.  Clouds will increase Friday night as an area of low pressure develops and tracks eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico; furthermore, scattered showers should overspread the area Saturday.  However, the heavier rain should stay confined to the Gulf Coast a little closer to the low pressure.  Clouds may stick around through Sunday, but the rainfall will be east of our area.  Our next chance of rain will move into the region Tuesday.

God Bless,

Trent

Behind Monday night's cold front, we will see mainly cloudy conditions along with chilly temperatures through at least Wednesday.  An area of low pressure centered over Missouri will be the culprit for keeping the clouds over our area through at least mid-week.  Highs Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 50s while we will probably only hit 60 degrees or so Wednesday.  Temperatures will start in the mid 40s Tuesday morning, and an even colder start in the mid 30s is expected Wednesday morning.  Our next rain chances are in the forecast for Friday night into Saturday as forecast models are indicating an area of low pressure tracking along the northern Gulf of Mexico.  There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this forecast as we head into the weekend so stay tuned.

God Bless,

Trent

High pressure will control our weather this weekend, but it will slide to our east which will allow temperatures to warm up as southerly flow increases. Lows will remain chilly in the 30s and 40s but high temperatures will warm up nicely in the mid to upper 70s. Other than a few clouds at times, we will see mostly sunny skies. A slow moving cold front will bring our next rain chances by Tuesday of next week, and scattered showers will remain in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday.

God Bless,

Trent

Ida is expected to make landfall as a strong tropical storm early Tuesday morning near the Mobile area, but Ida will quickly transition into an extratropical system as it becomes absorbed within an upper level trough Tuesday. This trough will shunt Ida off to the east taking it's effects away from East Mississippi and West Alabama by the late morning into the early afternoon hours. As far as our weather goes, we will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall Monday night into the first half of Tuesday along with breezy northeasterly winds 15-30 miles per hour with gusts as high as 35 or 40 miles per hour especially across our Southeast Mississippi and West Alabama counties. Rainfall totals could measure up to 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts especially in the previously mentioned areas. There will be a sharp cutoff point to the precipitation with some of our western counties potentially not getting much rain at all. I see the wettest areas lining up along and east of Interstate 59 in Southeast Mississippi and along and east of Highway 45 in the east-central and northern parts of the WTOK viewing area. However, that's not to say that areas west of these markers won't get any rainfall just not as much most likely. By Tuesday afternoon, most of the rainfall should be out of here, but clouds and windy conditions will hang around with gusty north northeasterly winds 15-30 miles per hour with higher gusts. Decreasing clouds are expected Tuesday night, and plenty of sunshine will return for Veterans' Day. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night and highs Veterans' Day will reach near 70 degrees. By the way, breezy conditions will stay with us Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sunshine will remain in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday with chilly mornings followed by warm afternoons.

God Bless,

Trent

High pressure will stay in control of our region over the next couple of days; furthermore, we will see a good supply of sunshine along with pleasant temperatures with highs in the middle 70s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Southerly flow will pick up Saturday which will allow moisture to start increasing across the Twin States, and we will see clouds along with deeper moisture moving in Sunday. Rain chances are expected by Sunday night with periods of heavy rain Monday into Tuesday as tropical moisture surges northward. We will be watching Ida closely by the early part of next week as it is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, but with an upper level trough and a cold front moving southeastward it may allow Ida to turn more eastward. A decent amount of shear should keep Ida's restrengthening at a minimum.

God Bless,

Trent

A couple of dry frontal passages are in the forecast this week with one coming Tuesday and the other front arriving Wednesday night. We may see a few clouds with these two frontal passages but not rain chances. Otherwise, we will have plenty of sunshine in the forecast through the weekend with near average to slightly below average temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the lower to middle 40s. Rain chances should hold off until Tuesday of next week.

God Bless,

Trent

Showers will continue for early Saturday morning, but sunshine should return by the afternoon hours. Highs will reach the mid 60s, but as the ghouls and goblins are heading out Halloween night we will see clear skies with chilly temperatures as lows drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Beautiful sunny skies are expected Sunday into Monday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the lower to middle 40s. A weak dry front will move through the region Tuesday, but all we will see with this front is a few clouds. Dry weather is in the forecast through Thursday; however, showers could return to the area by late next week.

God Bless,

Trent

A cold front is expected to move through East Mississippi and West Alabama Friday afternoon into Friday night bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall to the area.  The main severe weather threat will be damaging winds; however, there will be an isolated risk of tornadoes as a squall line develops along the cold front and sweeps eastward.  Behind the frontal passage, periods of light to moderate rain will continue through Friday night and at least Saturday morning as the upper trough pivots over the region.  A few showers could linger into early Saturday afternoon, but we should start drying out by Halloween night just in time for trick or treating.  Sunday through at least the middle of next week we will see plenty of sunshine across the Twin States with very pleasant temperatures.  Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, but behind the front we will drop into the lower to middle 50s Friday night.  Highs will only reach the lower to middle 60s Saturday with lows in the lower 40s Saturday night.  For Sunday into next week, highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

God Bless,

Trent   

Decreasing clouds are expected Tuesday night with areas of dense fog developing and continuing into Wednesday morning with temperatures dropping into the mid and upper 40s for lows.  Once the fog lifts around mid-morning, we will see mostly sunny skies with highs reaching the mid 70s.  Clouds will once again be on the increase Wednesday night as our next storm system approaches from the west; furthermore, a few showers can't be ruled out late Wednesday night.  Deep moisture will continue to be transported into our area on southwesterly flow aloft, and rain and thunderstorms will become likely by Thursday afternoon.  A few storms could be strong with locally heavy rain.  As the slow moving upper level system along with the surface front continue to push east, rain and t-storms will remain a high possibility for Friday, Friday night, and at least Saturday morning as computer models continue to slow this storm system down.  Rainfall totals could reach as high as 2 to 3 inches across our area before all is said and done, but the best chances for multiple inches of rain will probably remain just to our west.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a slight risk for severe weather Friday, and we will continue to monitor the severe potential.  Sunshine will finally make a return for Sunday into early next week.

God Bless,

Trent

An area of low pressure will move from southern Louisiana into Southeast Mississippi and then into Central Alabama Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening; furthermore, we will see widespread rain developing across the WTOK viewing area as the low pressure moves across the region. I don't expect too much in the way of heavy rainfall totals across our area, but 0.50"-1.00" seems plausible. We will get a brief break from the rain Wednesday, but another strong storm system will impact the Twin States Thursday into Friday. With this storm system, we will monitor the potential for strong to severe storms especially for Friday. Highs will remain cool in the 60s with the rain Tuesday; however, we will see highs back in the mid 70s Wednesday.

God Bless,

Trent 

A few morning showers are possible Friday with mostly cloudy skies, but clouds are expected to decrease by the afternoon hours with sunshine returning. As the cold front moves east of our area Friday, high pressure will build into the region from the west and keep sunny skies and pleasant temperatures in place this weekend. Highs will reach near 70 degrees with lows Friday night dropping into the middle 40s. Saturday will be very nice with highs in the upper 60s, but chilly temperatures are expected Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s. More sunshine is in the forecast for Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 70s.

God Bless,

Trent

High pressure centered to our east will keep skies mainly sunny through the middle of the week, and with southeasterly winds in place along will plenty of sunshine afternoon temperatures will rise back into the 70s. Lows will still be quite chilly with middle 30s Tuesday morning and lower to middle 40s for Wednesday morning. Our next storm system will impact the region Thursday into Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along with locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a few strong t-storms. The rain should be out of here by early Saturday with drier and cooler conditions returning for the rest of the weekend.

God Bless,

Trent

NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather

October 15, 2009

High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

• 

  High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

  Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.
• Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.
• Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.
• Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
• Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.
• California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.
• Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.
• Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state..

This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

An upper level disturbance along with a cold front will bring more rain and thunderstorms to the area Thursday with a few strong storms possible along with locally heavy rainfall. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain will continue into Thursday night, but the heaviest rainfall should end before midnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s Thursday night with northerly winds. Computer models are offering different solutions, but it looks like clouds along with light rain or drizzle will be in the forecast for Friday with highs only reaching the lower 60s with gusty northerly winds 10-20 miles per hour. Another cold front will move through the region Saturday morning so more drizzle/light rain can be expected for Friday night into Saturday with temperatures starting off in the mid 40s Saturday morning and highs only reaching the upper 50s. Plentiful sunshine will finally return Sunday into the middle of next week with highs going from the mid 60s Sunday into the mid 70s by Tuesday and lows remaining in the chilly 40s.

God Bless,

Trent

More widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday as a warm front surges northward from the Gulf Coast Tuesday.  A few disturbances will also track through the region helping to enhance the coverage and intensity of the rainfall.  As the warm front lifts over the area, temperatures will also warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs with lows in the upper 60s.  Finally a strong disturbance diving southward by Thursday into Friday morning will kick the front well to our south, and we will see much cooler and drier weather moving into the Twin States just in time for the weekend.  Highs should stay in the 60s for Friday through the weekend with lows in the lower to middle 40s (maybe even upper 30s); furthermore, we will finally see lots of sunshine this coming weekend.

God Bless,

Trent